Geopolitical Rigour and the Precision of Reason
The Middle East: Facts, Legends, Solutions
The Impact of Global Crises on Companies in Germany
100 Years of Quantum Physics ... and this is only the Beginning
Modelling the World with Learning Systems
Information is Becoming a Commodity – but Alpha Isn’t!
Artificial Intelligence in the Selection of Consumer Loans for Portfolio Management
The Possibility of the Impossible
Frankfurt am Main, 11 May 2026
Frankfurt am Main, 8 May 2026 – Artificial intelligence, science and the uncertain geopolitical situation were the focus of the 23rd ACATIS Value Conference. “We are currently living at the pinnacle of all civilisations to date – humanity has never had it better. And yet: the backbone of our Western value system is eroding,” said Dr Hendrik Leber, Managing Director of ACATIS Investment Kapitalverwaltungsgesellschaft mbH, in the first of seven specialist presentations attended by more than 200 guests at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. The event’s central theme was “Geopolitical Rigour and the Precision of Reason”.
At the start of the conference, Leber announced a change in leadership at ACATIS: Thorsten Schrieber will – subject to BaFin approval – take over as CEO on 1 July 2026. Leber himself and his wife Claudia Giani-Leber, who founded the company in 1994, will remain on the management board, as will Thomas Bosch, who is responsible for risk management, compliance, legal affairs, finance, human resources and back office. Leber intends to focus even more strongly on portfolio management in future. Schrieber, most recently responsible for sales and marketing on the board of DJE Kapital AG, brings more than 35 years of industry experience to the role – for Leber, he is the “highly qualified colleague” who is set to drive ACATIS’s strategic expansion.
Geopolitical Rigour and the Precision of Reason
In his opening address, Leber painted an ambivalent picture of the present day: exponential growth in knowledge and prosperity on the one hand, and geopolitical upheavals and growing hostility towards science and education on the other. Statistics showed that the number of fatalities per 100,000 people in armed conflicts has fallen steadily since the Second World War – contrary to public perception. Nevertheless, he warned that a redistribution of wealth could lead to new violence, and that global trends towards autocracy and totalitarianism were a cause for concern. “A democracy cannot exist if everything is constantly being called into question.”
A shift in the geopolitical balance of power is inevitable: “Nations come and go – the US is but a blink of an eye in history. China and India are overtaking the West through sheer scale and speed.” The figures bear this out: in 2024, US economic growth of 2.8 per cent was offset by a current account deficit of 3.9 per cent; the United States’ external liabilities have risen twice as fast as GDP over the past ten years. “Multilateral treaties are being replaced by ad hoc deals with no binding effect. The institutional framework is breaking down.” Added to this is the growing decoupling in future technologies: “Everyone is playing their own game – the US, Europe and China no longer exchange knowledge.”
Leber sees high valuations, an erosion of market ethics and a worrying ‘casino mentality’ in the capital markets. The exorbitant price rises in AI shares reminded him of the railway boom 150 years ago, the end of which led to massive price crashes between 1881 and 1929. As a value investor, he therefore seeks out companies that are themselves accumulators of knowledge – with stable process quality and genuine substance.
The Middle East: Facts, Legends, Solutions
Prof. Dr Michael Wolffsohn, historian and professor emeritus at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, analysed the Middle East conflict using his method of ‘political-demographic X-ray’. His central thesis is that most states in the region – such as Israel, Syria, Iraq and Iran – are not naturally formed entities, but are torn apart by deep ethnic and religious divisions. The population structures are as heterogeneous “as a patchwork quilt”, in which Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Alevis, Shiites and Sunnis are either in power or oppressed, depending on the country. Wolffsohn: “The post-colonial states are artificial constructs.” This leads to domestic political conflicts and disputes with neighbouring countries.
This division is also evident in the fact that countries such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait “are not formal partners of Israel, but de facto partners”. The Middle East Air Defence (MEAD) has actively helped to repel Iranian missile attacks. As a way forward, Wolffsohn advocated the federalisation of states with largely self-governing regions – “whether one calls them federal states, states or cantons”. Without such a reorganisation, lasting peace in the Middle East cannot be achieved.
The Impact of Global Crises on Companies in Germany
Dr Carlo Masala, Professor of Security and Defence Policy at the University of the Bundeswehr, provided a sober analysis of the geopolitical situation and its implications for the German economy. The world order is dominated by two heavyweight gorillas – the US and China – whilst other countries, including those in Europe, play at best the role of lightweight chimpanzees. Patents and innovative strength in key technologies are concentrated almost exclusively on these two powers; at the same time, the BRICS states are actively working on alternatives to the Western-dominated global financial order.
For Germany’s export-dependent economy, these multiple crises are a matter of survival. Supply chain disruptions caused by Houthi shelling in the Red Sea, and dependence on Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical production – all of this painfully highlights the vulnerability of the country’s position. Even seemingly trivial dependencies could have fatal consequences: The destruction of a single Ukrainian nail manufacturer paralysed European Euro-pallet production for weeks. According to Masala, China need not resort to military force at all – it would suffice to cut off the West’s supply of antibiotics. Beijing aims to be completely independent of foreign know-how in key industries such as mechanical engineering and automotive manufacturing by 2035.
His message was crystal clear: “In the military, you always prepare for the worst-case scenario. The business world, on the other hand, operates according to the ‘Cologne Constitution’: ‘Things have always turned out all right.’ Germany can no longer afford to adopt this attitude.” New markets – above all India and other populous emerging economies – must now be tapped, just as China was in the 1990s.
100 Years of Quantum Physics ... and this is only the Beginning
Prof. Dr Rainer Blatt of the University of Innsbruck, co-founder of Alpine Quantum Technologies (AQT), traced the development of quantum physics from its theoretical foundations – shaped by Planck, Einstein, Bohr, Heisenberg and Schrödinger – to its modern-day technical applications. The year 1925 is regarded as the birth of quantum physics as a distinct discipline; only now, a century later, is humanity beginning to put its principles to practical use.
Quantum computers work in a fundamentally different way to classical computers: instead of using the states 0 and 1, they work with superpositions and entanglements of entire registers of numbers, thereby performing many calculations simultaneously. However, Blatt expressly emphasised: “Quantum computers will not replace classical computers.” Quantum information is ephemeral, complete error correction has not yet been achieved, and the initial costs amount to at least ten million euros. He cited cryptography, secure communications, risk analysis in the financial sector and biochemical processes – such as CO₂ fixation in fertiliser production – as promising areas of application.
Blatt does not see any realistic threat to blockchain technology – and therefore to Bitcoin – from quantum computers in the foreseeable future, though he does not rule it out in the long term. He attributes Europe’s growing lag to a lack of capital, a lack of support from the military, and a culture that is not particularly tolerant of failure.
Modelling the World with Learning Systems
Florian Trifterer, a partner at NNAISENSE – a Swiss AI company acquired by ACATIS in 2025 – demonstrated how machine learning systems model complex realities: from weather forecasts and DNA sequencing to medical models that synthesise patient data from consultations, ECGs, blood tests and X-rays to produce accurate diagnoses and treatment recommendations.
For NNAISENSE, financial markets are also complex stochastic systems for which neither simple point forecasts nor classical Gaussian distributions are suitable. The in-house “Large Investment Model” (LIM) generates thousands of plausible market scenarios and maps joint probability distributions for many financial instruments simultaneously. A downstream optimiser uses this to calculate the portfolio with the best risk-adjusted performance – and can systematically take into account complex relationships such as high correlations within a group of shares.
Specifically, the model is being used in ACATIS’s first ETF, which has just been launched: the ACATIS Altersvorsorgedepot UCITS ETF (ISIN: DE000A428XC1). From a universe of 300 to 350 pre-screened stocks – the “350 Best of ACATIS” – the AI compiles an optimised portfolio of 50 stocks, which is reviewed and adjusted on a quarterly basis.
Information is Becoming a Commodity – but Alpha Isn’t!
Nico Baum, Head of Innovation & Data at the private bank Berenberg, posed the key question of the AI era: if generative AI makes information virtually unlimited, why do we still need traditional research services, and where will alpha come from in future? Since 2021, prices for AI models have fallen dramatically, and information advantages as a competitive edge are disappearing: “A traditional advantage of analysts is disappearing; the core of our business is changing.”
Portfolio managers should not try to compete with AI in areas where humans are structurally at a disadvantage. Baum sees their advantage in access to proprietary information – such as in management meetings – and in human judgement: “Machines cannot read between the lines.” The final decision still rests with humans.
His formula: rapid decision-making combined with a disciplined approach. To achieve this, Berenberg is pursuing a two-pronged strategy – bespoke AI applications based on internal data on the one hand, and a company-wide ‘Everyday AI’ platform on the other. The bottom line: when used correctly, AI is not a threat to portfolio managers, but a tool that frees up more time for in-depth analysis.
Artificial Intelligence in the Selection of Personal Loans
Luca Frignani, CEO of the fintech company Exaloan, demonstrated how AI is “turning traditional credit analysis on its head”. He argued that over-regulated banks are becoming increasingly irrelevant, giving rise to a “new data universe beyond credit bureaus and financial statements”. Frignani estimates the global market for digital consumer loans at 360 billion US dollars.
Over a period of six years, Exaloan has analysed 46 lending platforms, collecting more than 70 million credit data points, each containing at least 50 attributes. The resulting AI system, AUTOMAT, assesses loan applications in under two seconds and makes decisions that are transparent and traceable. The data trove is said to be comparable to that of a digital credit rating agency; the probability of default is reduced by 50 per cent compared to conventional scoring models. In live testing, the portfolio achieved an average gross return of 13.4 per cent with a cumulative default rate of 2.98 per cent; Exaloan gives a more conservative net target return of 9.2 per cent.
The Possibility of the Impossible
The conference drew to a close with a performance by mentalist Nicolai Friedrich, who repeatedly amazed the audience and presenter Beate Hoffbauer with the “possibility of the impossible” – even though his morning prediction for the DAX’s Xetra closing price was off by a few points. Dr Hendrik Lebers’ concluding remarks were encouraging despite all the geopolitical uncertainties: Europe is a strong continent that is currently just lacking a bit of direction. “We are better than we think. We just need to want to want.”